Ever since the Penrith by-election, we’ve been hearing endlessly about Western Sydney as the epicentre of the Australian political nation. The population “debate” proclaims that we need to “pause” as outer suburban areas groan under population pressure and failing infrastructure. Immigration, and asylum seekers, are part of the picture, we’re told.
But how “full” is Western Sydney?
Over at Troppo, Don Arthur has taken an invaluable look at stats on population growth, and decline, across Sydney.
His conclusion? Contrary to the established narrative, trumpeted for years by Bob Carr, Sydney is not “full”. Things are a lot more complex than the political predicates for the policy debate would have us believe.
And it’s not surprising there’s plenty of room in Campbelltown. Between 2001 and 2006 , the population of the Campbelltown LGA fell by 2.1% — a net loss of 3,019 people.As the map below shows, many areas of Sydney experienced population decline between 2001 and 2006 (pdf). Some of the booming new suburbs of the 60s and 70s are slowly emptying out. While the children have grown up and moved on many of their parents have stayed behind. And when these empty nesters own their own home, there is little incentive to move. To pick just one example, between 2001 and 2006, Sutherland Shire added 2,494 new dwellings but failed to arrest the decline in population. With fewer people in each home, the number of residents fell by 1,015 (pdf).
You can see the same pattern in Brisbane. Suburbs once on the city’s fringes, with large houses built in the 60s and 70s, when the average number of kids was still above 2, are now inhabited largely by elderly residents. At the same time, houses are packed, by unscrupulous landlords, with international students and recent immigrants crammed into over-priced properties. Local shops have closed, and activity has retreated to huge shopping centres further out from or closer in to the city. Public transport is minimal, with a few shoppers’ buses wending their way through deserted streets a few times a day.
It’s these areas where the fear of crime, inspired by a populist and irresponsible media, really takes root.
Arthur observes:
In time, the new suburbs on the fringe will go into decline. But if travel to work times rise and petrol becomes more expensive, some may never undergo renewal. In the Atlantic Christopher Leinberger warned that America’s outer suburbs may become the new slums. There’s a risk that some of our new suburbs will too.
In truth, we’re reaping the rewards of decades of poor urban planning, exacerbated recently by the craven obeisance of state governments to the property development lobby.
There are no quick fixes, but we actually need to think about how we live in cities, and that may well entail giving up on the “wide open spaces” Julia Gillard invoked in the leaders’ debate last night.
Nothing in this campaign so far convinces me that a path to resolving problems of growth and decline in our urban footprint are really on the agenda.